A metric that scores every shot by its probability of resulting in a goal, based on factors like shot location, angle, and assist type.
Expected Goals (xG) is a statistical measure that assigns every shot a value between 0 and 1 representing the probability of that shot becoming a goal. A penalty kick is typically valued around 0.76 xG — it results in a goal about 76% of the time. A header from 25 yards might be 0.03 xG.
xG is calculated by analysing thousands of similar historical shots and measuring how often each type resulted in a goal. The key inputs are shot location, shot angle to goal, whether it was a header or with the foot, the assist type (cross, through ball, set piece), and whether the goalkeeper was in position.
Raw goals are noisy. A team can win 3-0 thanks to two long-range deflections and a penalty against the run of play, while another team dominates possession and shots but loses 1-0. xG strips out that noise by measuring the quality of chances created, not just the outcomes.
Over a season, xG is a far better predictor of future performance than actual goals. Teams that consistently outperform their xG (score more than expected) typically regress toward their xG figure — they were getting lucky, not performing better.
Most modern football prediction models use xG rather than raw goals as the primary input. An xG-based Poisson model calculates each team's true attacking and defensive quality, producing scoreline probabilities that are more stable and predictive than goal-based models.
xG is also displayed directly on fixture pages and match analysis — giving you an immediate read on which team truly dominated, regardless of the final score.
xGA (Expected Goals Against)
The expected goals conceded by a team — a measure of defensive quality based on the quality of chances allowed, not just goals shipped.
PPDA (Passes Per Defensive Action)
A measure of pressing intensity — how many opposition passes are allowed before a defensive action is made in the opponent's half.
Poisson Distribution
The statistical model used to predict football match scorelines by treating goal-scoring as a random process based on each team's expected goals rate.
npxG (Non-Penalty Expected Goals)
Expected goals with penalties removed — a purer measure of a team or player's open-play goalscoring threat.
xPTS (Expected Points)
The number of league points a team would be expected to earn based on their xG and xGA across a series of matches.
For informational and educational purposes only. Disclaimer
