A metric expressing how much one team is dominating territorial pressure — calculated as that team's share of total shots or xG in a match.
Field tilt measures territorial dominance by expressing one team's share of total attacking output: Field Tilt = Team A xG / (Team A xG + Team B xG) × 100. A field tilt of 70% means Team A generated 70% of the combined xG — indicating strong territorial dominance. Field tilt above 60% generally indicates meaningful attacking advantage.
Field tilt differs from possession percentage in that it focuses on attacking output rather than ball retention. A team can have 60% possession and only 30% field tilt if they dominate without creating chances. Field tilt is more directly predictive of scoring than possession.
Field tilt is particularly useful for identifying teams whose results are not reflecting their underlying performance. A team with consistent 65%+ field tilt that has lost or drawn recent matches is likely due a positive result correction — their domination will eventually convert to points. Conversely, a team "winning ugly" with field tilt consistently below 40% is at risk of a negative correction.
Field tilt also informs Over/Under and BTTS markets: high field tilt by one team against a defensively poor opponent creates conditions for high-scoring games. Low combined field tilt (both teams near 50%) in a defensive match suggests Under and no BTTS.
xG (Expected Goals)
A metric that scores every shot by its probability of resulting in a goal, based on factors like shot location, angle, and assist type.
xGA (Expected Goals Against)
The expected goals conceded by a team — a measure of defensive quality based on the quality of chances allowed, not just goals shipped.
xPTS (Expected Points)
The number of league points a team would be expected to earn based on their xG and xGA across a series of matches.
PPDA (Passes Per Defensive Action)
A measure of pressing intensity — how many opposition passes are allowed before a defensive action is made in the opponent's half.
Possession
The percentage of time a team controls the ball during a match — widely reported but a poor standalone predictor of match outcomes.
For informational and educational purposes only. Disclaimer
