A systematic approach to deciding how much to bet on each selection — from flat staking to percentage-of-bankroll to Kelly criterion.
A staking plan is the set of rules that governs how much of your bankroll you wager on each bet. Without a staking plan, emotional betting decisions — chasing losses with larger stakes, over-betting on "confident" selections — will erode bankroll even when picking winners at a profitable rate. The staking plan creates discipline and mathematically optimises long-term growth.
The three most widely used approaches are: flat staking (same amount on every bet, simple and low variance), percentage staking (fixed % of current bankroll — adjusts automatically as the bankroll grows or shrinks), and Kelly criterion (mathematically optimal stake based on edge and odds).
The Kelly criterion calculates the optimal fraction of bankroll to stake using the formula: f = (bp − q) / b, where b is the decimal odds minus 1, p is your probability of winning, and q is 1 − p. For a bet at 2.10 (b = 1.10) where you estimate 60% probability (p = 0.60, q = 0.40): f = (1.10 × 0.60 − 0.40) / 1.10 = 0.26/1.10 = 23.6%.
Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but produces high variance — a run of bad results at full Kelly can devastate the bankroll. Most professional bettors use fractional Kelly (typically 25–50% of the calculated stake) to reduce variance while preserving much of the long-term growth advantage.
Flat staking — betting the same unit amount on every selection — is the simplest plan and produces the clearest P&L tracking. It is also the most resistant to tilt (emotional variance) because the stake never changes. The downside is that flat staking does not adapt to bankroll size: a series of losses does not reduce stake size, increasing the risk of ruin if a severe losing run occurs.
For most recreational bettors starting out, 1–2% of starting bankroll per bet is a sensible flat stake that allows hundreds of bets before ruin risk becomes material. This also provides a long enough sample for edge to manifest in the results — short samples with large stakes conflate luck and skill.
Bankroll Management
The practice of controlling bet sizing relative to your total available funds to ensure long-term survivability and sustainable profit.
Kelly Criterion
A mathematical formula that calculates the optimal fraction of your bankroll to stake on a bet, maximising long-term growth given your estimated edge.
Value Betting
Betting at odds that are higher than the true probability of the outcome — finding bets where the bookmaker has underestimated the chances of an event.
Expected Value (EV)
The average outcome of a bet over a large number of repetitions — positive EV means the bet profits long-term; negative EV means it loses.
CLV (Closing Line Value)
The difference between the odds you backed and the odds at match kick-off — the best long-term predictor of whether your betting strategy has a genuine edge.
For informational and educational purposes only. Disclaimer
