Calculate the probability of both teams scoring in any football match.
Expected goals model: Arsenal (1.40) vs Chelsea (1.20).
BTTS YES
52.6%
Fair odds: 1.90
BTTS NO
47.4%
Fair odds: 2.11
Over 2.5 Goals
48.2%
Fair odds: 2.08
Under 2.5 Goals
51.8%
Fair odds: 1.93
BTTS probability is the product of two independent Poisson calculations. Each term is the probability that one team scores at least one goal.
P(score 1+) = 1 minus e to the power of negative lambda. Team average of 1.2 goals per game gives about 70% chance of scoring.
BTTS Yes comes from multiplying the two team probabilities. Compare model fair odds against bookmaker price before any selection.
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BTTS means both teams score at least one goal in 90 minutes. Match result does not matter for settlement.
Good BTTS probability depends on market price. Probability above 55% usually enters playable range when bookmaker odds stay above model fair odds.
BTTS market rules use 90 minutes plus stoppage time in standard books. Extra time only applies when the bookmaker market explicitly says so.
BTTS model reliability depends on current goal rates and lineup quality. Reliability drops fast when attackers are missing or game state shifts early.
Highest BTTS rates usually appear in leagues with weaker defensive shape and high transition volume. Current-season league data should drive decisions, not old tables.
