Question 1

How does the correct score matrix work?

Accepted Answer

For each scoreline (home goals × away goals from 0-0 up to 5-5), the probability is the product of two independent Poisson draws: P(home scores X | home xG) × P(away scores Y | away xG). The full 36-cell grid sums to ~99% (the small tail past 5-5 is absorbed).

Question 2

Why use Poisson for correct score?

Accepted Answer

Poisson is the standard probability distribution for goals in football because goals arrive as a roughly memoryless rate process. Empirical research shows Poisson under-predicts certain "low-scoring" outcomes (especially 0-0 and 1-1) by 5-10% — for hyper-accurate models, apply a Dixon-Coles correction.

Question 3

How accurate is this model in practice?

Accepted Answer

For Match Winner and Over/Under markets it's comparable to bookmaker pricing. For exact-scoreline markets, Poisson typically slightly under-prices the most-common scorelines (1-1, 2-1) and over-prices high-scoring outliers (4-3, 5-2). Use it as a baseline against bookmaker correct-score lines, not as a standalone predictor.

↓ Home / Away →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5.2%	5.8%	3.2%	1.2%	0.32%	0.07%
1	9.7%	10.7%	5.9%	2.1%	0.59%	0.13%
2	9.0%	9.9%	5.4%	2.0%	0.55%	0.12%
3	5.5%	6.1%	3.3%	1.2%	0.34%	0.07%
4	2.6%	2.8%	1.5%	0.57%	0.16%	0.03%
5	0.95%	1.0%	0.57%	0.21%	0.06%	0.01%

↓ Home / Away →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5.2%	5.8%	3.2%	1.2%	0.32%	0.07%
1	9.7%	10.7%	5.9%	2.1%	0.59%	0.13%
2	9.0%	9.9%	5.4%	2.0%	0.55%	0.12%
3	5.5%	6.1%	3.3%	1.2%	0.34%	0.07%
4	2.6%	2.8%	1.5%	0.57%	0.16%	0.03%
5	0.95%	1.0%	0.57%	0.21%	0.06%	0.01%

Correct Score Matrix

Inputs

Match outcomes

Scoreline matrix

Top 10 most likely scorelines

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