Predict match outcomes with statistical probability by modeling how likely each team is to score 0 to 5 goals.
Average goals scored per game
Average goals scored per game
| Arsenal/Chelsea | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.72% | 8.06% | 4.84% | 1.94% | 0.58% | 0.14% |
| 1 | 10.08% | 12.10% | 7.26% | 2.90% | 0.87% | 0.21% |
| 2 | 7.56% | 9.07% | 5.44% | 2.18% | 0.65% | 0.16% |
| 3 | 3.78% | 4.54% | 2.72% | 1.09% | 0.33% | 0.08% |
| 4 | 1.42% | 1.70% | 1.02% | 0.41% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 5 | 0.43% | 0.51% | 0.31% | 0.12% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
Most Likely Scoreline
1-1
Arsenal Win
44.1%
Bookmaker needs to offer: 2.27
Draw
25.5%
Bookmaker needs to offer: 3.92
Chelsea Win
30.4%
Bookmaker needs to offer: 3.29
BTTS Yes
54.3%
Fair odds: 1.84
BTTS No
45.7%
Fair odds: 2.19
Poisson models goal frequency from a known average rate. Input a team's goals-per-game figure and the formula returns the exact probability of scoring 0, 1, 2 or more goals.
Scoreline probability is the product of each team's individual goal probability. Bettors use the output to price markets independently and compare against bookmaker odds to find pricing discrepancies.
Model edge above 5% on a market line is worth recording.
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Poisson accuracy is strongest in stable leagues with consistent team scoring rates. Team news, match state, and tactical changes still move outcomes away from baseline.
Goals-per-game input should come from recent matches with home and away splits. Matchup context against the current opponent improves model stability.
Poisson can price correct scores directly through exact goal probabilities. Correct-score markets still carry high variance, so staking needs tighter control.
Heatmap cells show exact scoreline probability from 0-0 to 5-5. Brighter cells mark the highest probability outcomes in the matrix.
Value bet process starts with fair odds from model probability. Market odds above that fair line indicate a candidate play.
The end-to-end Poisson workflow: xG inputs, probability output, value comparison.
Use Poisson scoreline distributions to price every AH line — the core handicap workflow.
Convert match xG into Over/Under fair prices and find systematic edges.
Pull rolling xG from public sources, feed it into Poisson, and price markets ahead of the line.
