Calculate the probability of total goals in any football match.
Expected Total Goals
2.70
Arsenal + Chelsea averages combined
Most Likely Total Goals
2
Highest single Poisson probability mass
Line 0.5
VALUEOver 0.5
93.3%
Fair odds: 1.07
Under 0.5
6.7%
Fair odds: 14.88
Line 1.5
VALUEOver 1.5
75.1%
Fair odds: 1.33
Under 1.5
24.9%
Fair odds: 4.02
Line 2.5
Over 2.5
50.6%
Fair odds: 1.97
Under 2.5
49.4%
Fair odds: 2.03
Line 3.5
Over 3.5
28.6%
Fair odds: 3.50
Under 3.5
71.4%
Fair odds: 1.40
Line 4.5
Over 4.5
13.7%
Fair odds: 7.29
Under 4.5
86.3%
Fair odds: 1.16
Total goals follow a Poisson distribution centred on the sum of both teams' expected output. Over 2.5 wins if three or more goals are scored.
Model prices each line independently from 0.5 through 4.5. Probability and fair odds update in real time from team goal inputs.
Model probability above bookmaker implied probability by more than 4% is worth logging for further analysis.
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Over 2.5 means at least three match goals in normal time. Scorelines like 2-1 and 2-2 win the line.
Highest-goal leagues usually combine fast tempo with weaker defensive compactness. Current-season data gives better signal than long-term league averages.
Value in totals starts with fair odds from model probability. Market odds above fair line create entry points when team news confirms pre-match assumptions.
Expected total above 2.7 often points toward over markets. Expected total near 2.0 usually pushes pricing toward under lines.
Weather affects shot quality and tempo directly. Heavy wind and rain usually lower conversion and reduce expected totals.
