The statistical model used to predict football match scorelines by treating goal-scoring as a random process based on each team's expected goals rate.
The Poisson distribution is a probability model that describes random events occurring at a known average rate. In football, goals are treated as random events — if a team averages 1.6 goals per home game, the Poisson distribution calculates the probability of them scoring 0, 1, 2, 3, or more goals in any specific match.
The formula: P(k goals) = (λ^k × e^−λ) / k! — where λ (lambda) is the expected goals rate and k is the number of goals. In practice, you feed in each team's expected goals figures and the model outputs a full probability matrix of every possible scoreline.
Once you have the scoreline probability matrix, you can derive the probability of every market: home win / draw / away win, BTTS Yes/No, Over/Under any goals line, and correct score odds. These model probabilities can then be compared against bookmaker odds to identify value bets.
KiqIQ's Poisson Calculator does this automatically — enter each team's goals-per-game figures and get the full probability breakdown instantly.
xG (Expected Goals)
A metric that scores every shot by its probability of resulting in a goal, based on factors like shot location, angle, and assist type.
BTTS (Both Teams to Score)
A betting market that pays out if both teams score at least one goal in the match, regardless of the final result.
Over/Under Goals
A market betting on the total number of goals in a match being above or below a set line — most commonly Over/Under 2.5 goals.
Implied Probability
The probability of an outcome embedded in bookmaker odds — calculated by dividing 1 by the decimal odds.
xPTS (Expected Points)
The number of league points a team would be expected to earn based on their xG and xGA across a series of matches.
For informational and educational purposes only. Disclaimer
