A post-shot metric that scores each shot on target by the probability it would beat an average goalkeeper, based on shot placement within the goal frame.
Expected Goals on Target (xGOT), also published as Post-Shot xG, refines pre-shot xG by adding the information of where the shot ended up on goal. Pre-shot xG values a shot before it leaves the boot, using location, angle, and shot type. xGOT layers on the placement — bottom corner versus straight at the keeper — to score how dangerous the shot actually was once on target.
The output is the probability an average Premier League keeper would have failed to save it. A penalty rolled into the corner might be 0.92 xGOT; a tame effort straight at the keeper from inside the box might be 0.18 xGOT.
xGOT and PSxG (Post-Shot Expected Goals) are mathematically the same metric — different vendors use different names. FBref publishes it as PSxG; Opta and StatsBomb prefer xGOT. The gap between a striker's goals and their xGOT measures finishing skill. The gap between a keeper's goals conceded and the xGOT they faced measures shot-stopping skill — a top-class keeper saves goals worth 4-6 above expected per season.
xG (Expected Goals)
A metric that scores every shot by its probability of resulting in a goal, based on factors like shot location, angle, and assist type.
npxG (Non-Penalty Expected Goals)
Expected goals with penalties removed — a purer measure of a team or player's open-play goalscoring threat.
PSxG (Post-Shot Expected Goals)
A refined xG model that accounts for shot placement within the goal — measuring the quality of each shot after it has been taken.
Shots on Target
Attempts that require a save or result in a goal, excluding blocked shots and shots that miss the frame.
Save Percentage
The proportion of shots on target that a goalkeeper saves — a basic measure of goalkeeping performance, but noisy over small samples.
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