A shot situation where the attacking player is in a strong position and would normally be expected to score — typically defined as xG ≥ 0.35.
A "big chance" is a shot with a very high probability of resulting in a goal — typically xG ≥ 0.35, though the exact threshold varies by data provider. One-on-ones with the goalkeeper, headers from close range from set pieces, and tap-ins all qualify. These are situations where not scoring is considered a miss rather than a save.
Big chance conversion rate — the percentage of big chances that result in goals — is tracked separately from overall conversion. League-average conversion on big chances is typically 45–55%. Teams or players consistently below this rate are missing chances; those consistently above it are finishing exceptionally well.
Big chance differential (big chances created minus big chances conceded) is a useful match-level indicator of which team had the superior scoring opportunities, particularly in low-scoring games where xG totals are compressed. Teams regularly creating big chances but converting at low rates are strong BTTS and Over/Under value targets — the finishing will normalise.
xG (Expected Goals)
A metric that scores every shot by its probability of resulting in a goal, based on factors like shot location, angle, and assist type.
Shots on Target
Attempts that require a save or result in a goal, excluding blocked shots and shots that miss the frame.
BTTS (Both Teams to Score)
A betting market that pays out if both teams score at least one goal in the match, regardless of the final result.
Over/Under Goals
A market betting on the total number of goals in a match being above or below a set line — most commonly Over/Under 2.5 goals.
Goal Conversion Rate
The percentage of total shots (or shots on target) that a player or team converts into goals — a measure of clinical finishing.
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