The percentage of total shots (or shots on target) that a player or team converts into goals — a measure of clinical finishing.
Goal conversion rate is goals divided by total shots: Conversion = Goals / Shots × 100. A striker who scores 12 goals from 60 shots has a 20% conversion rate. Shot-on-target conversion (goals / shots on target) is a stricter measure: the same striker might have 35 SoT, giving a 34% SoT conversion rate.
League average shot conversion is typically 10–13% of total shots and 30–35% of shots on target. Strikers sustaining conversion rates well above these averages over large samples are genuinely elite finishers; those sustaining them over small samples are likely experiencing positive variance.
Comparing a player's actual goal conversion rate to their expected goals per shot reveals whether they are over- or under-performing their chance quality. A striker with 0.15 average xG per shot but 20% conversion rate is finishing significantly above expectation — regression is likely. One with 0.18 xG per shot but only 9% conversion rate is underperforming and may be due a correction upward.
For fantasy purposes, under-converting strikers with high xG are strong differential picks: their stats suggest goals are coming; the market may not have priced the recovery yet.
xG (Expected Goals)
A metric that scores every shot by its probability of resulting in a goal, based on factors like shot location, angle, and assist type.
Shots on Target
Attempts that require a save or result in a goal, excluding blocked shots and shots that miss the frame.
Big Chance
A shot situation where the attacking player is in a strong position and would normally be expected to score — typically defined as xG ≥ 0.35.
Anytime Goalscorer
A bet on a player to score at least one goal at any point during the match, regardless of when or the final result.
npxG (Non-Penalty Expected Goals)
Expected goals with penalties removed — a purer measure of a team or player's open-play goalscoring threat.
For informational and educational purposes only. Disclaimer
