How effectively a team converts corners, free kicks, and throw-ins into goalscoring opportunities, measured as xG or goals generated per set piece.
Approximately 25–30% of all Premier League goals come from set pieces — corners, free kicks, and throw-ins. Teams that invest heavily in set piece routines and have aerial threats can significantly outperform their open-play xG through this channel alone. Between 2015 and 2024, Leicester City, Sheffield United, and Brentford all outperformed their expected open-play performance markedly through set piece efficiency.
Set piece efficiency is calculated as goals (or xG) generated from set piece situations divided by the total number of set pieces in a given sample. Elite set piece teams generate 0.08–0.15 xG per corner; average teams generate 0.04–0.07 xG per corner.
Teams strong at set pieces represent value in corner betting markets (they generate more corners through aggressive play) and in BTTS markets (they can score even against superior opposition through a routine). For match predictions, models that do not separately account for set piece xG will systematically underrate set piece-heavy teams.
xG (Expected Goals)
A metric that scores every shot by its probability of resulting in a goal, based on factors like shot location, angle, and assist type.
Aerial Duels
Contested headers between two players, tracked as aerial duels won and lost, used to assess a team's physical dominance in the air.
Shots on Target
Attempts that require a save or result in a goal, excluding blocked shots and shots that miss the frame.
For informational and educational purposes only. Disclaimer
