A modern action-valuation framework that scores every on-ball event by how much it changed the probability of the team scoring or conceding within the next 10 actions.
VAEP is a machine-learning framework developed at KU Leuven (Decroos, Bransen, Van Haaren, Davis 2019) that assigns a value to every on-ball action — pass, dribble, tackle, shot. The value is calculated as the change in scoring probability minus the change in conceding probability over the next 10 actions, conditioned on game state.
A through-ball that splits the defence might be worth +0.08 VAEP; a sideways pass in the centre circle might be worth +0.001. Crucially, defensive actions get values too: an interception that prevents a likely scoring attempt is rewarded similarly to a shot that creates one.
VAEP, OBV (Opta's On-Ball Value), and SPADL-derived metrics are all addressing the same problem: xG only values shots, but most football is non-shot actions. VAEP/OBV close that gap by valuing the build-up, the press, the recovery — turning every event into a contribution score. They're increasingly used in scouting and player ratings (FotMob, FBref player pages, club analytics departments).
xG (Expected Goals)
A metric that scores every shot by its probability of resulting in a goal, based on factors like shot location, angle, and assist type.
OBV (On-Ball Value)
A composite metric that assigns a value to every on-ball action — passes, carries, dribbles, shots — based on how much it increases or decreases the probability of scoring.
Progressive Passes
Passes that move the ball significantly closer to the opponent's goal — a key indicator of a team's attacking play style.
Progressive Carries
Ball carries that advance the ball at least 10 yards toward the opponent's goal — measuring a player's ability to drive forward with the ball.
Stat Padding
When a player accumulates impressive-looking numbers in low-leverage situations — late in won/lost games, against weak opponents — without those numbers reflecting genuine impact.
VAEP in Football: Valuing Actions by Estimating Probabilities
VAEP rates every on-ball action by how it changes the probability of scoring or conceding. We explain how it works, what it captures that xG misses, and where to find it.
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