Rules that limit how much clubs can lose or spend on their squad relative to income, using transfer-fee amortisation rather than the headline fee.
Financial Fair Play (UEFA) and Profitability & Sustainability Rules (the Premier League’s version) cap how much a club can lose over a rolling period and how much of its income can go on squad costs. They exist to stop clubs spending far beyond their means.
The key mechanic is amortisation: a transfer fee is not counted in one lump but spread evenly across the length of the player’s contract, capped at five years. A £60M signing on a five-year deal costs £12M per year on the books.
Because the annual book cost — amortisation plus wages — is what counts toward the limits, not the fee itself, clubs favour long contracts to shrink the yearly charge, and player sales are prized because the profit is booked in full immediately.
Understanding amortisation explains why a club can afford a huge headline fee yet still fall foul of PSR if wages and prior spending have already filled its budget.
Value Betting
Betting at odds that are higher than the true probability of the outcome — finding bets where the bookmaker has underestimated the chances of an event.
Monte Carlo Simulation
A method that plays out the rest of a season thousands of times at random to estimate the probability of each outcome, such as winning the title or being relegated.
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