A points-based team-strength rating, borrowed from chess, that updates after every match based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Elo is a rating system that assigns every team a single number representing its strength. Beating a stronger team earns more points than beating a weaker one, and every match nudges both teams’ ratings up or down, so the numbers track form over time without any manual input.
The expected result comes from a logistic formula: the probability the higher-rated side wins rises smoothly with the ratings gap. A 400-point advantage implies roughly a 91% expected score for the stronger team.
Football Elo systems usually add a home-advantage bonus to the home side before computing the expected result, and often scale the update by goal difference so a thrashing moves ratings more than a narrow win. The KiqIQ power rankings use this approach.
Because Elo produces a clean win probability, it can be converted straight into fair odds and compared with the market to look for value.
xG (Expected Goals)
A metric that scores every shot by its probability of resulting in a goal, based on factors like shot location, angle, and assist type.
Poisson Distribution
The statistical model used to predict football match scorelines by treating goal-scoring as a random process based on each team's expected goals rate.
Value Betting
Betting at odds that are higher than the true probability of the outcome — finding bets where the bookmaker has underestimated the chances of an event.
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