Enter two teams' Elo ratings and a result to see the win probability the model implied and each side's updated rating. Uses the same K-factor and home advantage as KiqIQ's power rankings.
Arsenal win prob
72.1%
Chelsea win prob
27.9%
Rating gap
100
Arsenal new rating
1657
1650 · +6.7
Chelsea new rating
1543
1550 · -6.7
For informational and entertainment purposes only. Please gamble responsibly. 18+
Elo is a rating system, originally from chess, that assigns every team a number representing its strength. Beating a stronger team gains more points than beating a weaker one; the ratings update after each match and naturally track form over time.
The expected result comes from the logistic formula 1 / (1 + 10^((opponent − team) / 400)), with a home-advantage bonus added to the home side's rating. A 400-point gap implies roughly a 91% expected score for the stronger team.
The K-factor controls how fast ratings move. KiqIQ uses 24. A higher K reacts faster to recent results but is noisier; a lower K is more stable but slower to reflect genuine change. Many football systems scale K by goal difference too.
Home teams win more often than a neutral-venue rating would predict, so a fixed bonus (KiqIQ uses about 65 rating points) is added to the home side before computing the expected result. That is roughly a 10% swing in win probability for evenly-matched teams.
