A model that values every pass and carry by how much it increases the chance of scoring in the next few actions — crediting build-up play, not just shots.
Expected Threat (xT) divides the pitch into a grid and assigns each zone a value equal to the probability that possession there leads to a goal within the next few actions. Moving the ball from a low-value zone into a high-value one earns positive xT; losing ground earns negative xT.
Unlike xG, which only measures shots, xT rewards the passes and carries that create danger. A progressive pass that splits the lines can carry more xT than a tame shot carries xG.
xT surfaces the players who move a team up the pitch — deep playmakers and ball-carriers whose contribution never shows in goals or assists. It is one of the cleanest ways to value progression.
KiqIQ uses possession-value ideas like xT alongside xG when explaining why a team creates (or concedes) more than the scoreline suggests.
xG (Expected Goals)
A metric that scores every shot by its probability of resulting in a goal, based on factors like shot location, angle, and assist type.
xA (Expected Assists)
A metric that measures the probability that a pass or cross will result in a goal, weighting each assist opportunity by the xG of the resulting shot.
PPDA (Passes Per Defensive Action)
A measure of pressing intensity — how many opposition passes are allowed before a defensive action is made in the opponent's half.
Progressive Passes
Passes that move the ball significantly closer to the opponent's goal — a key indicator of a team's attacking play style.
VAEP in Football: Valuing Actions by Estimating Probabilities
VAEP rates every on-ball action by how it changes the probability of scoring or conceding. We explain how it works, what it captures that xG misses, and where to find it.
Sofascore Alternatives: The Best Free + Paid Football Stats Sites
Sofascore is great but limited. We compare the best alternatives — Fotmob, FBref, FlashScore, OneFootball, KiqIQ, and StatsBomb — across coverage, depth, and use case.
StatsBomb IQ: A Complete Guide to the Football Analytics Platform
StatsBomb IQ is a paid football analytics platform used by elite clubs and analysts. We explain its features (events, 360, OBV, scouting), pricing tiers, and who should use it.
The Football Language Model: 2,000+ Metrics That Describe the Modern Game
Modern football is described by 2,000+ tracked metrics — from xG to PPDA to OBV. We explain the structure of football's metric vocabulary, how it grew, and how to navigate it.
Goalkeeper Distribution in Football: How Modern Keepers Build Play
Goalkeeper distribution covers everything a keeper does with the ball — short passes, long kicks, throws, drop-kicks. We map the modern distribution toolkit and the metrics used to evaluate it.
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