Portugal2025/26 season

Primeira Liga Table

Live standings refreshed hourly. The xPtscolumn shows the model's expected points based on goal-scoring rates; the Δ column is actual minus expected — positive means over-performance, negative means under-performance.

Fixtures Finish-position probabilities Top scorer race xPts methodology

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	xPts	Δ	Form
1	FC Porto	34	28	4	2	66	18	+48	88	79.3	+8.7	WWWLW
2	Sporting CP	34	25	7	2	89	24	+65	82	84.6	-2.6	DDWWW
3	Benfica	34	23	11	0	74	25	+49	80	78.1	+1.9	WWDDW
4	SC Braga	34	16	11	7	64	36	+28	59	65.3	-6.3	WLDDD
5	Famalicao	34	15	11	8	42	29	+13	56	56.0	+0.0	DWDDW
6	GIL Vicente	34	13	11	10	47	38	+9	50	52.9	-2.9	LWDLL
7	Moreirense	34	12	7	15	37	49	-12	43	38.0	+5.0	WLWLD
8	Arouca	34	12	6	16	47	64	-17	42	36.5	+5.5	WLDWW
9	Guimaraes	34	12	6	16	39	51	-12	42	38.3	+3.7	WWLLL
10	Estoril	34	10	9	15	54	57	-3	39	45.2	-6.2	LLDDL
11	Alverca	34	10	9	15	35	52	-17	39	34.7	+4.3	LWLDL
12	Rio Ave	34	8	12	14	35	57	-22	36	31.9	+4.1	DLDLD
13	Santa Clara	34	9	9	16	32	41	-9	36	39.2	-3.2	DWDWL
14	Nacional	34	9	7	18	37	45	-8	34	40.6	-6.6	WWLLW
15	Estrela	34	6	12	16	38	56	-18	30	34.7	-4.7	LLLDD
16	Casa Pia	34	6	12	16	31	57	-26	30	29.0	+1.0	LLLWD
17	Tondela	34	6	10	18	27	55	-28	28	27.1	+0.9	LDWWL
18	AVS	34	3	12	19	27	67	-40	21	21.6	-0.6	DDWWD

How xPoints is computed: for each team we average goals scored and conceded per match across the season, feed those rates into a Poisson model, derive a per-match expected-points value, and multiply by matches played. It's a goals-rate proxy — true shot-xG xPoints would require per-fixture stats aggregation that's outside the API budget right now. The methodology is consistent across every team in the table so the rankings remain meaningful.