Portugal

Primeira Liga Final Standings Probabilities

Where each Primeira Ligateam is most likely to finish, from 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations of every remaining fixture. Each team's per-match scoring rate to date drives the Poisson model that samples goals for every unplayed match; the table aggregates position frequencies and average final points across all simulations.

Read the methodology in our model transparency page. For top-scorer race projections see Primeira Liga top scorer probabilities.

Portugal

Primeira Liga Final Standings Probabilities

Read the methodology in our model transparency page. For top-scorer race projections see Primeira Liga top scorer probabilities.

Primeira Liga 2025/26 Final Standings Probabilities

#	Team	xPts Avg	xPts Mod	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
1	FC Porto	88.0	88	100.0
2	Sporting CP	82.0	82		100.0
3	Benfica	80.0	80			100.0
4	SC Braga	59.0	59				100.0
5	Famalicao	56.0	56					100.0
6	GIL Vicente	50.0	50						100.0
7	Moreirense	43.0	43							100.0
8	Arouca	42.0	42									100.0
9	Guimaraes	42.0	42								100.0
10	Estoril	39.0	39										100.0
11	Alverca	39.0	39
12	Rio Ave	36.0	36
13	Santa Clara	36.0	36
14	Nacional	34.0	34
15	Estrela	30.0	30
16	Casa Pia	32.2	33
17	Tondela	28.0	28
18	AVS	21.0	21