Stats hub
KiqIQ derives expected outcomes from per-match xG using the Poisson model the rest of the site already uses for scoreline probabilities. Each page below explains the formula, walks a worked example, and shows how to read a team that’s over- or under-performing the model.
Expected points per match — the headline metric for measuring whether a team is over- or under-performing the underlying numbers.
Expected wins from per-match xG. Sum the home-win probability across every fixture a team has played.
Expected draws — the share of fixtures where the Poisson model says the most likely outcome is a level scoreline.
Expected losses — the mirror of xWins. Useful for spotting teams whose form table flatters them.
Where these numbers come from: KiqIQ pulls per-match expected goals from our live fixture data and feeds them through the same Poisson library that powers the Poisson Calculator and the Predictions Hub. See the glossary for the underlying terms (xG, Poisson, implied probability).
