France2025/26 season

Ligue 1 Table

Live standings refreshed hourly. The xPtscolumn shows the model's expected points based on goal-scoring rates; the Δ column is actual minus expected — positive means over-performance, negative means under-performance.

Fixtures Finish-position probabilities Top scorer race xPts methodology

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	xPts	Δ	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	34	24	4	6	74	29	+45	76	75.4	+0.6	WDWWL
2	Lens	34	22	4	8	66	35	+31	70	67.2	+2.8	DDWLW
3	Lille	34	18	7	9	52	37	+15	61	57.1	+3.9	DWDWL
4	Lyon	34	18	6	10	53	40	+13	60	55.6	+4.4	WWWLL
5	Marseille	34	18	5	11	63	45	+18	59	58.6	+0.4	LDLWW
6	Rennes	34	17	8	9	59	50	+9	59	52.8	+6.2	WWLWL
7	Monaco	34	16	6	12	60	54	+6	54	50.9	+3.1	DDWLL
8	Strasbourg	34	15	8	11	58	47	+11	53	54.1	-1.1	WLDWW
9	Lorient	34	11	12	11	48	51	-3	45	44.8	+0.2	WLDWL
10	Toulouse	33	12	8	13	47	46	+1	44	46.0	-2.0	LLDWW
11	Paris FC	34	11	11	12	47	50	-3	44	44.7	-0.7	WLWLW
12	Stade Brestois 29	34	10	9	15	43	55	-12	39	38.8	+0.2	DLLLD
13	Angers	34	9	9	16	29	48	-19	36	32.4	+3.6	DLLDD
14	Le Havre	34	7	14	13	32	44	-12	35	37.3	-2.3	DDDLW
15	Auxerre	34	8	10	16	34	44	-10	34	38.9	-4.8	DLWWW
16	Nice	34	7	11	16	37	60	-23	32	31.8	+0.2	DDDLD
17	Nantes	33	5	8	20	29	52	-23	23	29.1	-6.1	DLLWL
18	Metz	34	3	8	23	32	76	-44	17	21.2	-4.2	LDLLD

How xPoints is computed: for each team we average goals scored and conceded per match across the season, feed those rates into a Poisson model, derive a per-match expected-points value, and multiply by matches played. It's a goals-rate proxy — true shot-xG xPoints would require per-fixture stats aggregation that's outside the API budget right now. The methodology is consistent across every team in the table so the rankings remain meaningful.