France
Where each Ligue 1team is most likely to finish, from 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations of every remaining fixture. Each team's per-match scoring rate to date drives the Poisson model that samples goals for every unplayed match; the table aggregates position frequencies and average final points across all simulations.
Read the methodology in our model transparency page. For top-scorer race projections see Ligue 1 top scorer probabilities.
| # | Team | xPts Avg | xPts Mod | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 76.0 | 76 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 2 |  Lens | 70.0 | 70 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 3 |  Lille | 61.0 | 61 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 4 |  Lyon | 60.0 | 60 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 5 |  Marseille | 59.0 | 59 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 6 |  Rennes | 59.0 | 59 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 7 |  Monaco | 54.0 | 54 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 8 |  Strasbourg | 53.0 | 53 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 9 |  Lorient | 45.0 | 45 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 10 |  Toulouse | 44.0 | 44 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 11 |  Paris FC | 44.0 | 44 | ||||||||||
| 12 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 39.0 | 39 | ||||||||||
| 13 |  Angers | 36.0 | 36 | ||||||||||
| 14 |  Le Havre | 35.0 | 35 | ||||||||||
| 15 |  Auxerre | 34.0 | 34 | ||||||||||
| 16 |  Nice | 34.3 | 35 | ||||||||||
| 17 |  Nantes | 23.0 | 23 | ||||||||||
| 18 |  Metz | 17.0 | 17 |
