Spain
Where each La Ligateam is most likely to finish, from 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations of every remaining fixture. Each team's per-match scoring rate to date drives the Poisson model that samples goals for every unplayed match; the table aggregates position frequencies and average final points across all simulations.
Read the methodology in our model transparency page. For top-scorer race projections see La Liga top scorer probabilities.
| # | Team | xPts Avg | xPts Mod | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 95.8 | 97 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 85.0 | 86 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 3 |  Villarreal | 70.7 | 72 | 73.1 | 26.9 | ||||||||
| 4 |  Atletico Madrid | 70.1 | 69 | 26.9 | 73.1 | ||||||||
| 5 |  Real Betis | 58.8 | 60 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 6 |  Celta Vigo | 52.8 | 54 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 7 |  Getafe | 49.6 | 51 | 67.6 | 23.2 | 8.1 | 1.1 | ||||||
| 8 |  Rayo Vallecano | 48.2 | 47 | 23.4 | 32.2 | 31.1 | 12.1 | ||||||
| 9 |  Valencia | 47.0 | 46 | 3.8 | 14.6 | 12.5 | 29.3 | ||||||
| 10 |  Real Sociedad | 46.0 | 45 | 4.6 | 12.8 | 17.3 | 14.3 | ||||||
| 11 |  Espanyol | 46.7 | 48 | 0.6 | 15.2 | 25.7 | 10.5 | ||||||
| 12 |  Athletic Club | 45.7 | 45 | 2.0 | 5.3 | 7.9 | |||||||
| 13 |  Sevilla | 44.0 | 43 | 6.4 | |||||||||
| 14 |  Alaves | 44.5 | 46 | 18.4 | |||||||||
| 15 |  Levante | 43.0 | 42 | ||||||||||
| 16 |  Osasuna | 43.1 | 42 | ||||||||||
| 17 |  Elche | 43.2 | 42 | ||||||||||
| 18 |  Girona | 41.6 | 43 | ||||||||||
| 19 |  Mallorca | 40.7 | 42 | ||||||||||
| 20 |  Oviedo | 30.0 | 29 |
