Spain
Who's most likely to win the La LigaGolden Boot, from 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Each player's current goals-per-90 rate is projected forward over their team's remaining fixtures, with minutes-per-appearance scaling the expected workload to match their actual usage pattern.
See the wider season picture in our La Liga final standings probabilities.
| Player | NT | G | xG | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kylian Mbappé | 🇫🇷 | 24 | 24.8 | 98.6 | 1.4 | |||
 V. Muriqi | 🇽🇰 | 22 | 22.6 | 1.4 | 98.6 | |||
 A. Budimir | 🇭🇷 | 17 | 17.5 | 81.9 | 15.8 | 2.1 | ||
 Ferran Torres | 🇪🇸 | 16 | 16.5 | 6.0 | 48.9 | 33.6 | ||
 Lamine Yamal | 🇪🇸 | 16 | 16.6 | 7.3 | 20.7 | 48.3 | ||
 Vinícius Júnior | 🇧🇷 | 16 | 16.4 | 4.3 | 12.3 | 12.8 | ||
 Mikel Oyarzabal | 🇪🇸 | 15 | 15.5 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 3.1 | ||
 Borja Iglesias | 🇪🇸 | 14 | 14.4 | |||||
 A. Sørloth | 🇳🇴 | 13 | 13.4 | |||||
 Toni Martínez | 🇪🇸 | 13 | 13.4 |
