Italy
Who's most likely to win the Serie AGolden Boot, from 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Each player's current goals-per-90 rate is projected forward over their team's remaining fixtures, with minutes-per-appearance scaling the expected workload to match their actual usage pattern.
See the wider season picture in our Serie A final standings probabilities.
| Player | NT | G | xG | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lautaro Martínez | 🇦🇷 | 17 | 17.6 | 100.0 | ||||
 M. Thuram | 🇫🇷 | 13 | 13.4 | 51.0 | 36.8 | 12.0 | ||
 T. Douvikas | 🇬🇷 | 13 | 13.3 | 15.4 | 42.8 | 38.5 | 3.3 | |
 D. Malen | 🇳🇱 | 13 | 13.8 | 31.9 | 16.5 | 48.2 | 3.4 | |
 N. Paz | 🇦🇷 | 12 | 12.4 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 85.1 | |
 G. Simeone | 🇦🇷 | 11 | 11.3 | 0.5 | 3.2 | |||
 R. Højlund | 🇩🇰 | 11 | 11.4 | 0.7 | 4.1 | |||
 N. Krstović | 🇲🇪 | 10 | 10.3 | |||||
 S. McTominay | 🏴 | 10 | 10.3 | |||||
 K. Yıldız | Türkiye | 10 | 10.3 |
