Italy

Serie A Final Standings Probabilities

Where each Serie Ateam is most likely to finish, from 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations of every remaining fixture. Each team's per-match scoring rate to date drives the Poisson model that samples goals for every unplayed match; the table aggregates position frequencies and average final points across all simulations.

Read the methodology in our model transparency page. For top-scorer race projections see Serie A top scorer probabilities.

Italy

Serie A Final Standings Probabilities

Read the methodology in our model transparency page. For top-scorer race projections see Serie A top scorer probabilities.

Serie A 2025/26 Final Standings Probabilities

#	Team	xPts Avg	xPts Mod	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
1	Inter	87.5	89	100.0
2	Napoli	74.8	76		84.2	11.3	4.5
3	AC Milan	71.9	73		4.9	32.8	35.4	20.0	6.9
4	AS Roma	71.7	73		10.9	42.0	19.9	19.7	7.5
5	Como	69.7	71			9.3	25.0	35.8	29.9
6	Juventus	69.5	71			4.6	15.2	24.5	55.7
7	Atalanta	59.4	61							100.0
8	Bologna	56.3	55								100.0
9	Lazio	53.0	54									85.4	13.0
10	Udinese	50.9	50									8.6	52.6
11	Sassuolo	50.3	49									6.0	34.4
12	Torino	45.2	44
13	Parma	43.4	45
14	Genoa	42.2	41
15	Fiorentina	42.4	41
16	Cagliari	40.8	40
17	Lecce	36.5	38
18	Cremonese	35.1	34
19	Hellas Verona	22.0	21
20	Pisa	18.7	18