Germany2025/26 season

Bundesliga Table

Live standings refreshed hourly. The xPtscolumn shows the model's expected points based on goal-scoring rates; the Δ column is actual minus expected — positive means over-performance, negative means under-performance.

Fixtures Finish-position probabilities Top scorer race xPts methodology

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	xPts	Δ	Form
1	Bayern München	34	28	5	1	122	36	+86	89	88.2	+0.8	WWDWW
2	Borussia Dortmund	34	22	7	5	70	34	+36	73	70.0	+3.0	LWLWW
3	RB Leipzig	34	20	5	9	66	47	+19	65	59.1	+5.9	WWLWL
4	VfB Stuttgart	34	18	8	8	71	49	+22	62	60.7	+1.3	LDDWD
5	1899 Hoffenheim	34	18	7	9	65	52	+13	61	55.3	+5.7	WWDWL
6	Bayer Leverkusen	34	17	8	9	68	47	+21	59	60.3	-1.3	LWWLD
7	SC Freiburg	34	13	8	13	51	57	-6	47	43.2	+3.8	WLDLW
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	11	11	12	61	65	-4	44	44.9	-0.9	LDLLD
9	FC Augsburg	34	12	7	15	45	61	-16	43	36.8	+6.2	WDWWL
10	FSV Mainz 05	34	10	10	14	44	53	-9	40	40.7	-0.7	DLWLW
11	Union Berlin	34	10	9	15	44	58	-14	39	37.8	+1.2	LLDWW
12	Borussia Mönchengladbach	34	9	11	14	42	53	-11	38	39.3	-1.3	DDWLW
13	Hamburger SV	34	9	11	14	40	54	-14	38	37.3	+0.7	LLWWD
14	1. FC Köln	34	7	11	16	49	63	-14	32	38.4	-6.4	DLDLL
15	Werder Bremen	34	8	8	18	37	60	-23	32	31.8	+0.2	WDLLL
16	VfL Wolfsburg	34	7	8	19	45	69	-24	29	32.6	-3.6	WDDLW
17	1. FC Heidenheim	34	6	8	20	41	72	-31	26	28.5	-2.5	LWDWL
18	FC St. Pauli	34	6	8	20	29	60	-31	26	26.1	-0.1	DLLLL

How xPoints is computed: for each team we average goals scored and conceded per match across the season, feed those rates into a Poisson model, derive a per-match expected-points value, and multiply by matches played. It's a goals-rate proxy — true shot-xG xPoints would require per-fixture stats aggregation that's outside the API budget right now. The methodology is consistent across every team in the table so the rankings remain meaningful.