England
Where each League Twoteam is most likely to finish, from 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations of every remaining fixture. Each team's per-match scoring rate to date drives the Poisson model that samples goals for every unplayed match; the table aggregates position frequencies and average final points across all simulations.
Read the methodology in our model transparency page. For top-scorer race projections see League Two top scorer probabilities.
| # | Team | xPts Avg | xPts Mod | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bromley | 87.0 | 87 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 2 |  Milton Keynes Dons | 86.0 | 86 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 3 |  Cambridge United | 82.0 | 82 | 25.3 | 74.7 | ||||||||
| 4 |  Salford City | 81.9 | 81 | 23.2 | 25.3 | 51.5 | |||||||
| 5 |  Notts County | 81.8 | 83 | 51.5 | 48.5 | ||||||||
| 6 |  Chesterfield | 79.0 | 79 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 7 |  Grimsby | 78.0 | 78 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 8 |  Barnet | 76.0 | 76 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 9 |  Swindon Town | 75.0 | 75 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 10 |  Oldham | 68.0 | 68 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 11 |  Crewe | 67.0 | 67 | ||||||||||
| 12 |  Colchester | 66.0 | 66 | ||||||||||
| 13 |  Walsall | 65.0 | 65 | ||||||||||
| 14 |  Bristol Rovers | 62.0 | 62 | ||||||||||
| 15 |  Fleetwood Town | 61.0 | 61 | ||||||||||
| 16 |  Accrington ST | 53.0 | 53 | ||||||||||
| 17 |  Gillingham | 53.0 | 53 | ||||||||||
| 18 |  Cheltenham | 52.0 | 52 | ||||||||||
| 19 |  Shrewsbury | 49.0 | 49 | ||||||||||
| 20 |  Newport County | 43.0 | 43 | ||||||||||
| 21 |  Tranmere | 41.0 | 41 | ||||||||||
| 22 |  Crawley Town | 40.0 | 40 | ||||||||||
| 23 |  Harrogate Town | 39.0 | 39 | ||||||||||
| 24 |  Barrow | 36.0 | 36 |
