England
Where each League Oneteam is most likely to finish, from 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations of every remaining fixture. Each team's per-match scoring rate to date drives the Poisson model that samples goals for every unplayed match; the table aggregates position frequencies and average final points across all simulations.
Read the methodology in our model transparency page. For top-scorer race projections see League One top scorer probabilities.
| # | Team | xPts Avg | xPts Mod | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lincoln | 103.0 | 103 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 2 |  Cardiff | 91.0 | 91 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 3 |  Stockport County | 78.0 | 77 | 50.5 | 49.5 | ||||||||
| 4 |  Bradford | 77.0 | 77 | 50.5 | 49.5 | ||||||||
| 5 |  Bolton | 76.7 | 78 | 49.5 | 50.5 | ||||||||
| 6 |  Stevenage | 75.0 | 75 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 7 |  Luton | 74.0 | 74 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 8 |  Plymouth | 73.0 | 73 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 9 |  Huddersfield | 67.0 | 67 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 10 |  Mansfield Town | 65.0 | 65 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 11 |  Wycombe | 63.0 | 63 | ||||||||||
| 12 |  Reading | 63.0 | 63 | ||||||||||
| 13 |  Blackpool | 60.0 | 60 | ||||||||||
| 14 |  Doncaster | 60.0 | 60 | ||||||||||
| 15 |  Barnsley | 59.0 | 59 | ||||||||||
| 16 |  Wigan | 56.0 | 56 | ||||||||||
| 17 |  Burton Albion | 54.0 | 54 | ||||||||||
| 18 |  Peterborough | 53.0 | 53 | ||||||||||
| 19 |  AFC Wimbledon | 53.0 | 53 | ||||||||||
| 20 |  Leyton Orient | 52.0 | 52 | ||||||||||
| 21 |  Exeter City | 49.0 | 49 | ||||||||||
| 22 |  Port Vale | 42.0 | 42 | ||||||||||
| 23 |  Rotherham | 41.0 | 41 | ||||||||||
| 24 |  Northampton | 35.0 | 35 |
