Netherlands

Eredivisie Final Standings Probabilities

Where each Eredivisieteam is most likely to finish, from 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations of every remaining fixture. Each team's per-match scoring rate to date drives the Poisson model that samples goals for every unplayed match; the table aggregates position frequencies and average final points across all simulations.

Read the methodology in our model transparency page. For top-scorer race projections see Eredivisie top scorer probabilities.

Netherlands

Eredivisie Final Standings Probabilities

Read the methodology in our model transparency page. For top-scorer race projections see Eredivisie top scorer probabilities.

Eredivisie 2025/26 Final Standings Probabilities

#	Team	xPts Avg	xPts Mod	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
1	PSV Eindhoven	84.0	84	100.0
2	Feyenoord	65.0	65		100.0
3	NEC Nijmegen	59.0	59			95.4	4.6
4	Twente	58.0	58				47.8	52.2
5	Ajax	57.8	59			4.6	47.6	47.8
6	Utrecht	54.8	56						73.9	26.1
7	AZ Alkmaar	52.0	52							73.9	26.1
8	Heerenveen	52.0	51						26.1		61.7	12.2
9	Groningen	49.0	48								12.2	87.8
10	Sparta Rotterdam	43.0	43										100.0
11	Fortuna Sittard	39.0	39
12	GO Ahead Eagles	38.0	38
13	Excelsior	38.0	38
14	Telstar	37.0	37
15	PEC Zwolle	37.0	37
16	FC Volendam	32.0	32
17	NAC Breda	29.0	29
18	Heracles	19.0	19