England
Where each Championshipteam is most likely to finish, from 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations of every remaining fixture. Each team's per-match scoring rate to date drives the Poisson model that samples goals for every unplayed match; the table aggregates position frequencies and average final points across all simulations.
Read the methodology in our model transparency page. For top-scorer race projections see Championship top scorer probabilities.
| # | Team | xPts Avg | xPts Mod | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Coventry | 95.0 | 95 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 2 |  Ipswich | 84.0 | 84 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 3 |  Millwall | 83.0 | 83 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 4 |  Southampton | 80.0 | 80 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 5 |  Middlesbrough | 80.0 | 80 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 6 |  Hull City | 73.0 | 73 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 7 |  Wrexham | 71.0 | 71 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 8 |  Derby | 69.0 | 69 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 9 |  Norwich | 65.0 | 65 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 10 |  Birmingham | 64.0 | 64 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 11 |  Swansea | 64.0 | 64 | ||||||||||
| 12 |  Bristol City | 62.0 | 62 | ||||||||||
| 13 |  Sheffield Utd | 60.0 | 60 | ||||||||||
| 14 |  Preston | 60.0 | 60 | ||||||||||
| 15 |  QPR | 58.0 | 58 | ||||||||||
| 16 |  Watford | 57.0 | 57 | ||||||||||
| 17 |  Stoke City | 55.0 | 55 | ||||||||||
| 18 |  Portsmouth | 55.0 | 55 | ||||||||||
| 19 |  Charlton | 53.0 | 53 | ||||||||||
| 20 |  Blackburn | 52.0 | 52 | ||||||||||
| 21 |  West Brom | 51.0 | 51 | ||||||||||
| 22 |  Oxford United | 47.0 | 47 | ||||||||||
| 23 |  Leicester | 46.0 | 46 | ||||||||||
| 24 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 0.0 | 0 |
