Anytime goalscorer (ATGS) bets are one of the most popular football markets — but bookmaker margins are steep. Here is how the market works, how odds are set, and how to find value.
An anytime goalscorer bet wins if your selected player scores at least once during the match. It does not matter when the goal arrives — the first minute or the 90th — as long as the player gets on the scoresheet before the final whistle. The player can score once or five times; you only need one goal.
ATGS markets are distinct from first goalscorer (FTGS) bets, which require the player to score the very first goal of the match. ATGS is easier to win because there are multiple goal opportunities, which is reflected in lower odds — but the market also attracts much higher bookmaker margins.
ATGS — Anytime Goalscorer
Player scores at least once during 90 minutes. Multiple goals do not change the outcome — one is enough. Usually pays 1.50–3.50 for top strikers.
FTGS — First Goalscorer
Player must score the very first goal of the match. Much harder to win — roughly 1/N of the ATGS probability if goals are evenly distributed. Higher odds, typically 4.00–12.00.
Settlement varies slightly between bookmakers — always read the small print. The table below covers the most common scenarios:
| Scenario | Result | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Player scores in 90 mins + added time | WIN | Standard settlement |
| Player scores in extra time (cup match) | VARIES | Most books pay on 90 mins only — check terms |
| Player scores in penalty shootout | LOSE | Penalties in shootouts do not count as a goal |
| Own goal only (no other goal) | LOSE | Own goals are never credited to a player |
| Player substituted off before scoring | LOSE | Must score while on pitch |
| Player substituted on and then scores | WIN | Substitutes count (at most books) |
| Match abandoned before 90 mins | VOID | Bets voided if match doesn't complete |
| Player listed but does not appear | VOID | Non-starter rules apply at most books |
Bookmakers estimate each player's goal probability using a combination of shots per game, shot quality (xG), and the opposing team's defensive weakness. The core formula is simple:
P(scores) ≈ 1 − e−λ where λ = player xG for match
Poisson approximation — probability of scoring at least one goal given expected goals λ
A striker expected to generate 0.6 xG in a match has approximately a 45% probability of scoring (1 − e−0.6 ≈ 0.451). Fair odds would be around 2.22 (1 ÷ 0.451). A bookmaker adding a 20% margin would price them at roughly 1.85–1.95.
The margin on goalscorer markets is typically 15–30% — significantly higher than the 4–8% you see on 1X2 markets. That means ATGS is inherently poor value compared to match result betting unless you have a genuine edge.
Approximate ranges across top five European leagues, home/away averaged:
| Player Type | Avg Shots/Game | ATGS Probability | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Centre-forward / Striker | 3.0–4.5 | 30–45% | Highest volume, first choice for ATGS |
| Shadow striker / No.10 | 2.0–3.0 | 20–30% | Often underpriced vs central striker |
| Winger / Wide forward | 1.5–2.5 | 15–25% | Check if team plays through wide channels |
| Attacking midfielder | 1.5–2.5 | 15–22% | Shots from distance inflate shots count |
| Centre-back (set piece) | 0.3–0.8 | 5–10% | Only relevant in corners/free-kick heavy teams |
| Penalty taker (any position) | varies | +5–8% per match | Add to base estimate when team wins pens frequently |
Given high margins, you need a specific edge to make ATGS betting profitable. The most consistent approaches:
1. Target Fixture-Driven Upside
A striker averaging 0.4 xG per game facing a team conceding 1.8 goals per game should generate closer to 0.7 xG in this specific fixture — a 75% uplift. Bookmakers often apply season averages without context. Use Poisson modelling to quantify.
2. Exploit Return-from-Injury Pricing
A key striker returning from a short injury is often priced on pre-injury form but playing against fatigue. Conversely, a replacement who has been playing and in form may be underpriced because bookmakers expect the main striker to reclaim the role.
3. Set Piece Penalty Takers vs Weak Defences
When a reliable penalty taker faces a team that concedes 3+ penalties per month, their ATGS probability is structurally higher. Factor in ~8–12% per likely penalty in the match. This is often not reflected in prices.
4. Underpriced Secondary Strikers
When a team's primary striker is the focal point, the number two striker often generates xG of 0.25–0.35 per game at odds of 4.0–5.0. These represent better EV than the main striker at 1.80 if the implied margin is the same.
5. Away Team Strikers in Open Games
Away teams in high-scoring fixtures tend to have their striker ATGS underpriced because bookmakers apply home advantage discounts. An expected open game (both teams averaging 2.0+ goals) often yields value on the away centre-forward.
6. Shop for Best ATGS Odds
ATGS prices vary by 15–25% between bookmakers on the same player. A player priced at 2.50 at one book may be 3.00 at another. At scale, consistently taking the best available price is a significant edge.
| Factor | ATGS | FTGS |
|---|---|---|
| Win condition | Score at any time | Score the first goal |
| Probability (top striker) | 30–45% | 8–18% |
| Typical odds (top striker) | 1.80–2.80 | 4.50–8.00 |
| Bookmaker margin | 15–25% | 25–40% |
| Impact of match opening up | Moderate | High — late goal irrelevant |
| Sensitivity to substitution timing | Low | Medium |
| Best use case | Consistent high-volume scorers | High-ceiling matches vs weak defences |
What does anytime goalscorer mean?
Anytime goalscorer (ATGS) means the selected player must score at least once during the match — at any point in the 90 minutes plus added time. It does not matter when the goal is scored, just that the player scores at least one.
Do own goals count for anytime goalscorer bets?
No. Own goals do not count as a goalscorer bet settlement at any bookmaker. The player must deliberately score a goal credited to them. If a player deflects in an own goal, it is credited to the opposition and your bet loses.
Does a player have to start to qualify for ATGS bets?
Rules vary by bookmaker. Most settle ATGS on all players who appear during the 90 minutes — including substitutes. Some have a "must start" rule; always check the individual bookmaker's terms before placing.
How do bookmakers price anytime goalscorer odds?
Bookmakers estimate a player's probability of scoring using their shots per game, minutes played, and the opposing team's goals allowed per game. They then apply a margin (typically 15–25% on goalscorer markets, higher than 1X2). A striker with a 30% chance of scoring might be priced at 2.50–2.80 rather than a fair 3.33.
