The definitional guide to double chance — how 1X, X2 and 12 settle, why DC odds are lower than 1X2, and the structural margin economics. For the picking-edge workflow, see the Double Chance Strategy guide.
1X
Home Win or Draw
Wins if the home team wins or if the match is a draw. Loses only if the away team wins. Useful when backing a home side that might struggle to win outright.
X2
Draw or Away Win
Wins if the match is drawn or if the away team wins. Loses only if the home team wins. Common when backing a superior away side to at minimum avoid a loss.
12
Home Win or Away Win
Wins if either team wins. Loses only if the match is a draw. Useful in matches where a draw is very unlikely — finals, elimination rounds, or mismatched meetings.
Double chance probability is the sum of two of the three outcome probabilities (after stripping the 1X2 margin). This makes it straightforward to calculate the fair value of any double chance bet from the underlying 1X2 odds.
Step 1: Strip the 1X2 margin
Sum = 1/2.20 + 1/3.50 + 1/3.80 = 0.455 + 0.286 + 0.263 = 1.004 (margin 0.4%)
Step 2: Calculate fair probabilities
Fair Home = 0.455 ÷ 1.004 = 45.3%
Fair Draw = 0.286 ÷ 1.004 = 28.5%
Fair Away = 0.263 ÷ 1.004 = 26.2%
Step 3: Calculate fair double chance probability
1X fair prob = 45.3% + 28.5% = 73.8% → fair odds = 1.355
Use the Fair Odds Calculator to strip margin from any 1X2 market automatically.
Match: Home 2.20 / Draw 3.50 / Away 3.80 (1X2 market)
| Bet | Fair DC prob | Fair DC odds | Typical bookie odds | Effective margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X (Home or Draw) | 74.1% | 1.35 | 1.30 | 4.0% |
| X2 (Draw or Away) | 54.6% | 1.83 | 1.75 | 4.5% |
| 12 (Home or Away) | 71.5% | 1.40 | 1.33 | 5.0% |
Bookmaker odds shown are representative examples. Actual offerings vary. The margin on double chance markets is typically equal to or slightly higher than the underlying 1X2 margin.
Both 1X double chance and Draw No Bet (DNB) protect you against a draw. But they work differently:
| Scenario | 1X Double Chance | Draw No Bet (Home) |
|---|---|---|
| Home team wins | ✅ Win | ✅ Win |
| Match is a draw | ✅ Win | 🔄 Stake refunded |
| Away team wins | ❌ Lose | ❌ Lose |
| Relative odds | Lower (draw = win) | Higher (draw = refund only) |
In most cases, Draw No Bet offers slightly better odds than 1X double chance for the same home protection — because DNB refunds on draw rather than paying a win. Unless the draw is a specific outcome you actively want to profit from (e.g. you think a draw is genuinely likely), DNB is the more efficient bet for backing a home team with draw protection.
12 in knockout matches
In cup finals or elimination rounds, draws lead to extra time and penalties — not an end result. A 12 double chance effectively gives you "either team wins in regulation." In matches where a draw is structurally unlikely, 12 double chance can offer value close to the 1X2 favourite price but covering both sides.
1X for home outsiders
When a home side is the underdog (away odds are shorter than home odds), the draw becomes a particularly significant cushion. A 1X double chance for the home outsider covers a match where the away team fails to win — which includes any home upset or a defiant draw performance.
X2 in accumulators
Adding an X2 selection for a strong away team into an accumulator rather than a straight away win reduces the odds contribution but dramatically increases the individual leg win probability. Over a 10-leg acca, substituting lower-odds higher-probability double chance options reduces both the potential return and the probability of the acca busting on a draw.
Value double chance via mispriced 1X2
If your model gives 35% home and 40% draw, the 1X double chance fair probability is 75%. If the bookmaker implies only 70% in their 1X double chance odds, there is genuine positive EV even accounting for the lower odds. This type of value is only findable by modelling individual outcomes first.
Double chance betting covers two of the three possible outcomes in a football match with a single bet. The three double chance options are: 1X (home win or draw), X2 (draw or away win), and 12 (home win or away win — no draw). A double chance bet wins if either of your two covered outcomes occurs.
Double chance odds are derived from the 1X2 market. The fair double chance probability is the sum of the two individual outcome probabilities (after removing the margin). 1X fair prob = fair home prob + fair draw prob. The fair double chance odds = 1 ÷ fair double chance probability. Bookmakers then apply their own margin on top.
Double chance bets always have lower odds than backing a single 1X2 outcome, because you cover more outcomes. However, the bookmaker margin on double chance markets is often similar to or higher than the 1X2 margin — meaning you are not necessarily getting better value, just lower variance. For finding genuine edge, compare the implied probability of each double chance option to your model's probability of those two outcomes combined.
1X (home win or draw) makes sense when: you believe the home team will not lose, but are not confident enough in a home win to back it alone; when draw no bet prices are too short; or when a strong home side is facing a resilient but limited away team where a draw is a plausible second outcome. It is particularly useful in cup matches where draws lead to extra time.
Draw no bet (DNB) refunds your stake if the match ends in a draw — it is a two-way market. Double chance 1X or X2 wins if the match is a draw — it is still a three-way market covering two outcomes. DNB is better when you want draw protection on a favoured team with stake refund on draw; double chance is better when you actively want to cover the draw as a positive win condition.
18+ only. For informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
