What is Closing Line Value?

Closing Line Value (CLV) measures whether you took a price better than where the market settled at kickoff. CLV % = (your odds / closing odds) − 1. Sustained positive CLV is the gold-standard indicator of long-run sports betting skill — even more meaningful than win rate.

Why does CLV matter more than win rate?

Win rate over a small sample (under 200 bets) is mostly luck. CLV measures the underlying process — whether you're identifying mispricing earlier than the market consensus. A bettor with +2% CLV will profit long-run regardless of any individual bet outcome.

What CLV should I aim for?

+1% average CLV is genuinely profitable long-run. +2% is strong. +3% across hundreds of bets is professional-grade. Anything consistently negative means your process is finding worse prices than market consensus — fix the timing or the selection logic before scaling stakes.

Closing Line Value Calculator

Closing Line Value (CLV) is the gold-standard measure of a sports bettor's long-run skill. Beat the closing line consistently and you have an edge — even if individual bets lose. Compare your taken price against the closing market price to see your CLV % and implied EV.

Inputs

Your Odds (taken)

Closing Odds

Stake (£) — optional

Result

✓ POSITIVE CLV — you beat the closing line. Long-run, this is a profitable selection process.

CLV %

+10.00%

Your Implied %

45.5%

Close Implied %

50.0%

EV (if close is fair)

+10.00%

Implied expected profit on £100: £10.00 (if the closing line is the true probability).

For informational purposes only. CLV measures process quality, not single-bet outcomes. 18+. Gamble responsibly.

Why CLV matters

• Closing odds approximate true probability — by kickoff, the line has absorbed most public money plus sharp action plus team-news updates. It's the market's best collective estimate.
• Beating it = process edge — if you consistently take prices shorter (better) than where the line settles, you're identifying mispricing earlier than the rest of the market.
• CLV survives variance — single bets win or lose. CLV is the only metric that meaningfully separates skill from luck across small sample sizes.
• Track CLV per bet — log every bet's taken odds and closing odds, then look at your average CLV % over 100+ bets. Sustained +1% CLV is a real edge; +3% CLV is professional-grade.

Related Calculators

Value Bet

Identify mispricing before the market closes.

No-Vig Odds

Strip overround from closing markets to isolate true probability.

CLV in Practice

Full guide to logging CLV across your betting workflow.

Closing Line Value Calculator

Inputs

Your Odds (taken)

Closing Odds

Stake (£) — optional

Result

✓ POSITIVE CLV — you beat the closing line. Long-run, this is a profitable selection process.

CLV %

+10.00%

Your Implied %

45.5%

Close Implied %

50.0%

EV (if close is fair)

+10.00%

Implied expected profit on £100: £10.00 (if the closing line is the true probability).

For informational purposes only. CLV measures process quality, not single-bet outcomes. 18+. Gamble responsibly.

Why CLV matters

• Closing odds approximate true probability — by kickoff, the line has absorbed most public money plus sharp action plus team-news updates. It's the market's best collective estimate.
• Beating it = process edge — if you consistently take prices shorter (better) than where the line settles, you're identifying mispricing earlier than the rest of the market.
• CLV survives variance — single bets win or lose. CLV is the only metric that meaningfully separates skill from luck across small sample sizes.
• Track CLV per bet — log every bet's taken odds and closing odds, then look at your average CLV % over 100+ bets. Sustained +1% CLV is a real edge; +3% CLV is professional-grade.

Related Calculators

Value Bet

Identify mispricing before the market closes.

No-Vig Odds

Strip overround from closing markets to isolate true probability.

CLV in Practice

Full guide to logging CLV across your betting workflow.