Compare your estimated probability against bookmaker odds. Reveals the bookmaker's implied probability, the no-margin fair odds, and the EV % — the long-term expected return per £1 staked.
Your estimate of the true win chance
Decimal odds offered
For expected-profit calculation
Bookmaker Implied %
47.62%
Fair Odds (no margin)
1.82
EV %
+15.50%
Expected Profit / £100
£15.50
If win: £210.00 return
For informational purposes only. 18+. Gamble responsibly.
A value bet exists when your estimated true probability is higher than the bookmaker's implied probability after their margin. Mathematically: probability × decimal odds > 1. The EV % output here measures that surplus per £1 staked.
Very accurate. Most recreational bettors overestimate their edge. A 5% EV bet only stays profitable long-run if your probabilities are within ±3 points of the true rate. Use a Poisson model, public consensus, or sharp bookmakers as a cross-check before trusting your number.
Fair odds are 1 / your probability — what the bet would pay with zero bookmaker margin. Bookmakers always price below fair to lock in their cut (the overround). When their offered odds exceed fair odds, that's your edge.
