Question 1

What is expected value?

Accepted Answer

Expected value (EV) is the average profit or loss you would make on a bet if it were placed thousands of times. Positive EV bets are profitable in the long run; negative EV bets lose money on average. EV = (probability × profit if win) + (push probability × 0) + (lose probability × −stake).

Question 2

What is push probability?

Accepted Answer

A push happens when the bet is voided and the stake returned. Common in Asian handicaps with whole-number lines (e.g. AH 0, AH −1) and Draw No Bet markets. Adding push probability gives a more accurate EV figure for these markets.

Question 3

How is this different from the value bet calculator?

Accepted Answer

Both compute expected value. The EV calculator is stake-aware and supports push probability for void markets; the value bet calculator focuses on identifying mispricing by comparing your probability to the bookmaker implied probability.

Expected Value Calculator

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Expected Value Calculator

Inputs

Result

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