Understat is the most granular free xG database for European football — shot-level xG with rolling models, cumulative xG charts, player npxG time series, and historical data across six leagues. KiqIQ is the analytical decision layer: the Poisson model, calculators, and guides that convert Understat xG data into structured betting decisions. They are designed to be used together.
Understat is one of the best free xG resources available for the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, and RFPL — particularly for its shot-level data, rolling model visualisations, and non-penalty xG filtering. KiqIQ does not attempt to replicate this data — instead, it provides the analytical framework (Poisson model, EV calculator, bet tracker, guides) that converts Understat xG into structured betting decisions. Understat is the data source, KiqIQ is the decision engine.
| Feature | KiqIQ | Understat |
|---|---|---|
| Football-specific analytical framework | ✓ | — |
| Poisson distribution model | ✓ | — |
| 28 free betting calculators | ✓ | — |
| Bet tracker with ROI and P&L | ✓ | — |
| Expected Value framework | ✓ | — |
| Kelly criterion staking | ✓ | — |
| 93+ strategy and competition guides | ✓ | — |
| Football glossary (130+ terms) | ✓ | — |
| Responsible gambling tools | ✓ | — |
| Shot-level xG data with model details | — | ✓ |
| Rolling xG charts for team and player | — | ✓ |
| xG time series per match (cumulative xG charts) | — | ✓ |
| Player-level xG and xA across 6 European leagues | — | ✓ |
| Non-penalty xG (npxG) filtering | — | ✓ |
| Historical xG data across multiple seasons | — | ✓ |
Understat publishes rolling 5-game and season-to-date xG for and against for every team across the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, and RFPL. These rolling xG values are direct inputs for the KiqIQ Poisson calculator. Pull the rolling 5-game xG average from Understat for both teams, enter into Poisson, and generate match win/draw/loss and Over/Under probabilities in under 60 seconds.
Open Poisson Calculator →Understat provides non-penalty xG (npxG) per 90 minutes for every tracked player — the cleanest measure of shooting quality after removing penalty distortion. These values are the primary inputs for the KiqIQ 5-step anytime goalscorer framework: player npxG per 90 × minutes adjustment × opponent xGA multiplier → P(anytime goal) → compare to bookmaker price. Understat's npxG is the recommended data source for this calculation.
Player Props Framework →Understat's cumulative xG vs actual goals charts reveal when teams are overperforming or underperforming their xG model — the primary signal for outright market inefficiency. A team 6+ points below their xPts trajectory mid-season is a candidate for value in top-4, relegation, and league winner outrights. Use Understat xG data to identify the divergence and the KiqIQ outright betting guide to frame the EV calculation.
Outright Betting Guide →Convert Understat rolling xG data into match probabilities — the bridge from xG data to a structured betting decision.
Kelly staking, EV calculation, accumulator value, arbitrage detection — the decision tools Understat doesn't provide.
BTTS, Asian Handicap, correct score, player props, and 14 competition-specific betting frameworks.
How to use Understat xG divergence and xPts models to find value in league winner, top-4, and relegation outright markets.
The 5-step anytime goalscorer model that uses Understat npxG per 90 as its primary data input.
The framework for deciding whether an Understat-informed probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability.
Understat supplies the raw xG inputs — rolling team xG, player npxG per 90, cumulative xG divergence charts. KiqIQ converts those inputs into probability models and structured betting decisions.
Pull rolling 5-game xG for/against for both teams. Get player npxG per 90 for props. Check cumulative xG for outright divergence.
Enter xG into Poisson calculator. Calculate player props probability using npxG. Apply EV calculator to compare model vs bookmaker.
Compare model probability to bookmaker implied. Calculate EV. Apply Kelly staking. Log bet in tracker.
Free to use — 28 calculators, 93+ guides, no registration required.
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