The complete Monday-to-Sunday framework for systematic value betting — structured research, Poisson modelling, Kelly staking, CLV tracking, and post-match review using KiqIQ tools throughout.
Profitable football betting is not about picking winners — it is about consistently identifying bets where your probability estimate is more accurate than the market. This requires a repeatable weekly process: structured research, honest model-building, disciplined staking, and rigorous performance tracking.
This guide gives you that process, built around KiqIQ's tools and AI assistant at every stage of the week. Run it consistently for 100+ bets and your CLV data will tell you definitively whether you have edge — long before ROI becomes statistically meaningful.
Each day has a distinct phase, specific tasks, recommended KiqIQ tools, and an AI prompt to accelerate your research.
Fixture Selection & First Look
AI Prompt
"Give me an overview of this weekend's Premier League fixtures. Which matches have the most interesting xG storylines — teams over- or under-performing their results, or with notable injury news affecting the market?"
Shortlist of 5–8 target fixtures + opening odds logged
Deep Research & xG Analysis
AI Prompt
"For [Team A vs Team B]: what are each team's xG and xGA per game averages over the last 6 matches? What is the Poisson probability for each outcome using those averages? How does that compare to the current market odds?"
xG-based probability estimates for each target fixture vs market odds
Model Building & Value Identification
AI Prompt
"Help me calculate the expected value for backing [Team] to win at [odds]. My Poisson model gives them a [X%] chance of winning based on xG of [Y] vs opponent xGA of [Z]. Is this positive EV at these odds after accounting for the bookmaker's margin?"
Ranked bet list with EV estimates and Kelly-recommended stake sizes
Tactical Checks & What-If Scenarios
AI Prompt
"Is there any injury, rotation, or tactical news about [Team] ahead of their [Day] fixture that might not yet be priced into the market? If [Key Player] is absent, how much does that change the expected xG output?"
Tactically-adjusted bet list with news-adjusted EV estimates
Final Checks & Pre-Bet Confirmation
AI Prompt
"Is there any late-breaking news for [Team] today that would change the betting case? Has there been significant line movement on [Market] in the last 24 hours that suggests sharp money has moved?"
Final bet list with best odds, stake sizes, and exposure confirmation
Execution & In-Play Monitoring
AI Prompt
"It's 65 minutes in [Match], the score is [X-Y]. The pre-match xG model gave [Team A] a 65% win probability. Based on what I told you earlier this week about [Team A]'s recent form, is there any value in backing them in-play at [current odds]?"
All bets placed and logged; closing odds recorded for CLV tracking
Review & Performance Analysis
AI Prompt
"My pre-match model for [Team A vs Team B] gave [Team A] a [X%] probability of winning but the result was [outcome]. Looking at the actual match data and post-match xG, was my model wrong or was this a result-vs-performance divergence? What should I note for next time?"
CLV summary, P&L update, and model notes for next week
These rules protect your bankroll during variance periods and ensure you scale only when edge is proven — not when you are running hot.
| Rule | Value | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Maximum weekly exposure | 10–15% of total bankroll | Limits drawdown risk during variance periods |
| Maximum single bet | 3–5% of bankroll (Kelly-sized) | Prevents catastrophic loss from a single outcome |
| Minimum bets before judging | 100 bets | Below this, results are dominated by variance not skill |
| CLV review frequency | Weekly (minimum 10 bets) | More frequent review leads to over-adjustment and noise |
| Stop loss trigger | 20% bankroll drawdown | Protects against extended bad runs; pause to review model |
| Scale-up trigger | +3% CLV over 50+ bets | Only increase stakes when edge is demonstrated, not lucky |
Poisson Calculator
Build xG-based scoreline probability models for each fixture
Kelly Criterion
Calculate optimal stake size from your probability edge
Fair Odds Calculator
Strip bookmaker margin to find true implied probability
Implied Probability
Convert decimal odds to probability and vice versa
Bet Tracker
Log every bet with odds, stake, result and CLV tracking
Predictions Hub
Browse fixture-level xG projections across all leagues
