Expected threat measures how much a pass or carry increases the chance of scoring. Pick where a move starts and ends and this returns the xT added — the value of moving the ball into a more dangerous area.
Start value
0.016
End value
0.048
xT added
+0.032
For informational and educational purposes only. 18+
Expected threat assigns every zone of the pitch a value equal to how likely a possession there ends in a goal. A pass or carry that moves the ball to a higher-value zone adds xT equal to the difference, so it rewards ball progression — not just shots and assists.
xG values a shot and xA values the pass that creates it. xT values every action that advances the ball toward goal, including the build-up carries and passes that never directly precede a shot. It is the best of the three for measuring deep-lying progressors.
Moving the ball to a less dangerous zone — a back-pass or a sideways ball into a tight area — lowers the possession value, so the xT added is negative. Recyclers of possession often post small or negative xT despite high pass counts.
No. Published xT models fit a fine grid of values to huge match datasets. This calculator uses a simplified, transparent grid so you can see the mechanic — big value near goal, steep gradient through central channels.
