Not sure where to start? Here are over 80 example questions for the KiqIQ AI assistant — organised by use case. Copy any question directly or use it as a template for your own analysis.
Tip: The more specific your question, the sharper the answer. Include team names, actual odds, specific markets, and the decision you are trying to make. KiqIQ gives precise answers — not generic explanations — when it has context to work with.
Questions to identify mispriced odds and calculate true edge.
The bookmaker has Arsenal at 2.10 to win at home this weekend. Is there value here given their recent xG data?
What is expected value (EV) in betting and how do I calculate it for a specific match?
A team wins 55% of matches at home but the odds imply only 48%. How do I calculate the EV of backing them?
How do I work out if the market is overestimating or underestimating a team's home advantage?
Explain how to use Poisson distribution to find value in the over/under goals market.
I have identified a team with a high xG per game but low goals scored. Is there value in the over goals market?
How do I compare my own probability estimate against the bookmaker's implied probability to check for value?
What makes a bet +EV and why can a winning bet still be -EV?
Understand how bookmaker markets work and where the edge hides.
What is the typical bookmaker margin on over/under 2.5 goals vs 1X2 markets — and which is easier to beat?
How do Asian Handicap odds work and why do they often have lower margins than the 1X2 market?
Explain how to calculate whether an each-way bet on a 3-1 favourite represents value.
How do I detect and exploit margin differences across bookmakers without arbitrage?
Explain the difference between European, Asian, and American odds formats — with conversion formulas.
What is the Kelly Criterion and why do most bettors use quarter-Kelly in practice?
How does a Yankee bet compound risk and how do I calculate the breakeven win rate?
What is a dutching bet and when does it make mathematical sense to split stakes across outcomes?
How do I know if an arb opportunity is real or if I am misreading the odds?
Build your analysis before kickoff using xG, form, and context.
What xG do Manchester City generate at home on average and how does this compare to Liverpool's xGA away?
A team has won their last 5 home games but their xG is only 1.1 per game. Are they overperforming and likely to regress?
How should I weight recent form vs season-long xG data when building a prediction?
What is the Poisson probability of over 2.5 goals if I expect 1.6 goals for the home team and 1.1 for the away?
How do I assess head-to-head records statistically — and when should I ignore them?
Explain what PPDA means and how I can use it to gauge pressing intensity before a match.
How does altitude, travel distance, or midweek fixture congestion affect expected performance?
Which team statistics best predict whether a match will produce over 2.5 goals?
How do injury and suspension data affect pre-match probabilities — and how much should odds move?
Build smarter accas with data rather than gut feel.
How do I calculate whether a 3-leg accumulator represents better EV than three separate singles?
At what bookmaker margin does adding another leg to an accumulator become mathematically negative EV?
How do I select accumulator legs based on xG rather than recent form?
What is the probability of a 5-fold accumulator landing if each leg has a 65% implied win chance?
How does margin compounding work in accumulators — show me the maths with a 5-leg example.
Which markets have the lowest bookmaker margin and are therefore better to include in accumulator legs?
How do I assess correlation risk in accumulators — for example, two matches in the same gameweek?
Protect your bankroll and size stakes based on your real edge.
What is the Kelly Criterion formula and how do I apply it to a bet with 2.20 odds and a 55% edge estimate?
I have estimated a 10% edge on a bet at evens. What does full Kelly recommend and why might I want to use half-Kelly instead?
How much of my bankroll should I risk if my true win probability is 60% on a 1.80 shot?
What is variance in betting and how does it explain why profitable bettors still lose over 50-bet samples?
How do I build a betting bankroll management plan from scratch — what are the key rules?
Explain the ruin risk formula and how I can calculate the probability of losing my entire bank.
At what point does my unit size need to scale up as my bankroll grows?
Measure your edge, spot leaks, and track what the data says.
What is closing line value (CLV) and why is it considered a better measure of skill than ROI in a small sample?
I have placed 80 bets with a 3% ROI. Is that statistically significant or likely variance?
How do I track my bets in a way that helps me identify whether I am genuinely good at a specific market?
What is the difference between ROI and yield in betting — and which should I focus on?
Explain how to calculate my strike rate and what target strike rate I need to break even at different odds levels.
How many bets do I need to establish statistical significance in my results?
What tracking metrics should I separate — market type, league, odds range — to find my true edge?
Read line movement and understand what sharp money signals.
The opening odds on a team were 2.50 and they closed at 1.90. What does this movement signal about market sentiment?
What is the difference between sharp money and public money — and how does each affect line movement?
How do I calculate CLV if I got Arsenal at 2.20 and they closed at 1.95?
When do odds movements mean nothing and when are they a genuine signal?
Explain why closing line value beats the closing price on average in the long run.
How do bookmakers use account restrictions to protect their margins — and what does this tell me if my account is limited?
Why do opening odds sometimes differ significantly across bookmakers and how can I exploit this?
Data-driven decisions on transfers, differentials, and captains.
A striker has 0 goals in 4 games but 5.2 xG in that period — should I keep him or sell?
Compare the fixture difficulty for Haaland vs Salah over the next 5 gameweeks using xGA data.
Which metrics best predict a defender's clean sheet probability — goals conceded vs xGA vs PPDA?
A player has a rotation risk flag — how much should this affect my transfer decision relative to fixture quality?
How do I assess whether a differential pick is worth the risk at 4% ownership if my rank is top 10k?
What is "form over fixture" and when does it outperform fixture-based selection according to the data?
How does xA (expected assists) help me identify players who should get more attacking returns soon?
How do I compare two midfielders at the same price point using data rather than reputation?
Captain picks, chip strategy, and overall team construction.
I have two free transfers. Should I save one for next week or use both now given my team's fixtures?
My budget is tight — how do I calculate whether upgrading a £4.5m midfielder to a £7.5m one is worth the hits elsewhere?
What is a "template" FPL team and why can high template ownership hurt your overall rank in big gameweeks?
When should I use my Wildcard? What does historical data say about optimal Wildcard timing?
How does points per million (PPM) help me identify budget gems vs expensive underperformers?
Which positions and price brackets have historically delivered the best PPM returns in FPL?
How do I weigh captaincy between a high-floor safe pick and a high-ceiling differential?
Understand the numbers behind the game you watch.
What is xG and why is it a better measure of performance than the final score?
How do I read a heat map and what does it tell me about a team's attacking shape?
Explain what PPDA means and how it reveals a team's pressing intensity vs deep block approach.
Why do possession statistics alone not predict match winners — what extra context do I need?
What is progressive passing and how does it differentiate a possession team from a control team?
How does home advantage work statistically in the Premier League vs La Liga — and has it changed post-COVID?
What does xGA (expected goals against) tell me about a goalkeeper's performance vs their defence in front of them?
Explain the difference between high press, mid-block, and low block using actual metrics.
Understand what the xG and stats say after the whistle.
Liverpool drew 1-1 but created 2.8 xG vs 0.6 xGA. What does this performance tell us about future results?
Why does a team that dominates possession sometimes still lose — what statistics explain this?
How would you assess a striker who scores 10 goals on 5.4 xG — is that elite finishing or unsustainable luck?
Explain the tactical difference between a 4-3-3 high press and a 4-5-1 low block using metrics.
A team lost 3-0 but outperformed on xG 2.1 vs 0.7. Does this mean they will bounce back next week?
How do I compare two central midfielders using data rather than the eye test — which stats matter most?
What does a team's shot location chart tell me that the goals-conceded column hides?
Turn your research into a repeatable analytical process.
How do I build a basic Poisson model for football predictions — what inputs and steps do I need?
What data sources are publicly available for building a home/away xG model at no cost?
How do I back-test a simple rule-based betting strategy to see if it would have been profitable?
What is the difference between a model's accuracy, calibration, and profitability — and why do they sometimes conflict?
How do I avoid overfitting when building a model on historical results data?
Explain how Dixon-Coles improves on basic Poisson for football prediction — is it worth implementing?
What is the minimum dataset size I need to draw statistically meaningful conclusions from a xG model?
The difference between a useful answer and a generic one is usually the quality of the question. Here is what separates them.
Include the specific odds you are looking at
BETTER
""Arsenal are 2.10 to win at home vs Everton this weekend. Is this value given their last 6 home xG averages?""
TOO VAGUE
""Is Arsenal good value this week?""
State the numbers you already have
BETTER
""I have Man City xG at 1.8 and Chelsea xGA at 1.3. What Poisson probability does this give for a Man City win?""
TOO VAGUE
""What is the probability of Man City winning?""
Ask for a comparison, not just a definition
BETTER
""Compare Asian Handicap 0 vs Draw No Bet mathematically — when would each produce better value?""
TOO VAGUE
""What is Asian Handicap?""
Specify the decision you need to make
BETTER
""I want to run a Kelly stake calculation for a bet at 2.50 where I estimate 55% probability — what inputs do I need?""
TOO VAGUE
""How do I bet the right amount?""
Include your bankroll or sample context
BETTER
""I have placed 60 bets with a 4.5% ROI. Is this significant enough to increase my unit size?""
TOO VAGUE
""Am I a profitable bettor?""
Name the market and league
BETTER
""Which Premier League teams are most consistently over 2.5 goals this season based on xG averages?""
TOO VAGUE
""Which games will have lots of goals?""
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