England
Where each Premier Leagueteam is most likely to finish, from 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations of every remaining fixture. Each team's per-match scoring rate to date drives the Poisson model that samples goals for every unplayed match; the table aggregates position frequencies and average final points across all simulations.
Read the methodology in our model transparency page. For top-scorer race projections see Premier League top scorer probabilities.
| # | Team | xPts Avg | xPts Mod | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 83.6 | 85 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 2 |  Manchester City | 80.0 | 81 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 3 |  Manchester United | 69.2 | 68 | 100.0 | |||||||||
| 4 |  Aston Villa | 62.8 | 62 | 71.6 | 28.4 | ||||||||
| 5 |  Liverpool | 60.7 | 62 | 28.4 | 71.4 | ||||||||
| 6 |  Bournemouth | 57.1 | 56 | 79.3 | 20.5 | ||||||||
| 7 |  Brighton | 54.6 | 56 | 20.5 | 40.6 | 28.7 | 10.2 | ||||||
| 8 |  Chelsea | 53.2 | 52 | 19.4 | 33.2 | 26.4 | 20.9 | ||||||
| 9 |  Brentford | 53.1 | 52 | 10.0 | 14.1 | 50.2 | 20.9 | ||||||
| 10 |  Sunderland | 52.5 | 54 | 9.5 | 24.0 | 7.0 | 10.1 | ||||||
| 11 |  Newcastle | 50.1 | 49 | 5.6 | 14.6 | ||||||||
| 12 |  Everton | 50.1 | 49 | 0.5 | 12.6 | ||||||||
| 13 |  Fulham | 50.6 | 52 | 20.9 | |||||||||
| 14 |  Leeds | 48.2 | 47 | ||||||||||
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 46.1 | 45 | ||||||||||
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 44.6 | 46 | ||||||||||
| 17 |  Tottenham | 39.6 | 41 | ||||||||||
| 18 |  West Ham | 37.5 | 39 | ||||||||||
| 19 |  Burnley | 22.7 | 24 | ||||||||||
| 20 |  Wolves | 20.0 | 19 |
