kiqiq:fixture · kiqiq:matrix
Predict the score for Arsenal vs Liverpool this weekend
Arsenal
xG 1.78
vs
Liverpool
xG 1.21
Emirates Stadium, London
Win probability
KiqIQ saidArsenal at home, expected goals 1.78 to 1.21. Most likely scoreline is 2–1 (8.7%), with 2–0 (7.2%) and 1–1 (7.8%) as the next-best fades. Cross-bookmaker market has 2–1 at 9.5% implied — model edge of −0.8pp, fair value. Pick: 2–1 Arsenal, but expect noise.
KiqIQ runs a bivariate Poisson model on each team's venue-split expected goals. For Arsenal at home, we take their season-long home goals-per-game and adjust by the league mean — then the same for Liverpool's away conceded rate. The product of the two Poisson distributions gives a 6×6 grid of scoreline probabilities (0–5 goals per side covers ~98% of real match outcomes). The cell with the highest probability is the model's pick; the cross-bookmaker market's implied probability for that cell tells you whether the price is fair, undervalued, or overvalued.
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