Calculate goals per game averages for two teams and estimate over/under and BTTS probabilities for their match.
Goals per game
1.91
Goals per game
1.27
Combined expected goals (xG proxy)
3.18
Arsenal 1.91 + Chelsea 1.27
Over 1.5 Goals
82.6%
Over 2.5 Goals
61.6%
Over 3.5 Goals
39.3%
BTTS Yes
61.3%
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Get AI-powered match analysis and predictions.
Goals per game (GPG) measures a team's average scoring output across a season. It is one of the simplest and most reliable indicators of offensive productivity, commonly used to set over/under lines.
Add both teams' GPG averages together to get the expected match total. Feed that combined figure into a Poisson model to estimate the probability of the total exceeding 1.5, 2.5 or 3.5 goals.
A combined GPG above 3.0 suggests an over 2.5 goal match is more likely than not. Above 3.5 combined GPG, over 2.5 probability typically exceeds 65%. Below 2.0 combined GPG, under markets become attractive.
Yes — home/away splits are more accurate than season-wide averages. Teams typically score more at home and concede more away. Using home GPG for the home side and away GPG for visitors improves model accuracy.
Goals per game is a result-based metric — it counts actual goals scored. Expected goals (xG) measures shot quality and gives a better view of underlying performance. GPG is easier to source but noisier; xG is more predictive but requires premium data.
