Enter the contenders, their current points, games left and expected points per game, and this runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the run-in to estimate each team's chance of the title, a top-four finish and finishing last.
| Team | Points now | Games left | Exp. pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|
Leave a team blank to exclude it. Expected points per game reflects form/strength for the run-in (2.3 ≈ title form, 1.0 ≈ struggling).
It plays out the rest of the season thousands of times. In each run, every remaining game is decided at random according to how strong each team is, the final table is recorded, and after ten thousand runs the share of tables in which a team finishes first, top four or last becomes its probability.
Use the team's realistic form for the run-in. Around 2.3–2.5 is title-winning pace, 2.0 is strong European form, 1.4 is mid-table and below 1.0 is relegation form. You can base it on recent points-per-game or an Elo/xG view.
This is a simplified simulator: it treats each game independently from the team's strength and ignores the exact fixture list and head-to-heads between the contenders. Full models simulate the real remaining schedule match by match.
Slightly — Monte Carlo estimates carry a small random error. With ten thousand runs the figures are stable to about one percentage point; run it again to see the variation.
