kiqiq:fixture · kiqiq:matrix
Predict the score for Arsenal vs Liverpool this weekend
Arsenal
xG 1.78
vs
Liverpool
xG 1.21
Emirates Stadium, London
Win probability
Correct-score grid (Poisson)
KiqIQ saidArsenal at home, expected goals 1.78 to 1.21. Most likely scoreline is 2–1 (8.7%), with 2–0 (7.2%) and 1–1 (7.8%) as the next-best fades. Cross-bookmaker market has 2–1 at 9.5% implied — model edge of −0.8pp, fair value. Pick: 2–1 Arsenal, but expect noise.
KiqIQ runs a bivariate Poisson model on each team's venue-split expected goals. For Arsenal at home, we take their season-long home goals-per-game and adjust by the league mean — then the same for Liverpool's away conceded rate. The product of the two Poisson distributions gives a 6×6 grid of scoreline probabilities (0–5 goals per side covers ~98% of real match outcomes). The cell with the highest probability is the model's pick; the cross-bookmaker market's implied probability for that cell tells you whether the price is fair, undervalued, or overvalued.
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