Compare a player's goals to their expected goals to measure finishing over- or under-performance. The goals-minus-xG gap — the basis of shot-placement metrics like xGoT — shows who is clinical, who is wasteful, and who is riding variance.
Goals − xG
+3.0
Conversion ratio
1.25×
xG per shot
0.150
For informational and educational purposes only. 18+
It measures finishing performance relative to chance quality. A positive figure means a player scored more than an average finisher would from the same chances; a negative figure means fewer. It is one of the most-watched signals for spotting over- or under-performing forwards.
Not necessarily. Over a small sample it is often just variance — a few chances falling right. Elite finishers can sustain a modest positive gap over years, but a large gap over a handful of games usually regresses.
Expected goals on target (xGoT), or post-shot xG, grades the quality of a shot after it is struck — its placement, speed and height. Comparing xGoT to pre-shot xG isolates finishing skill; comparing goals conceded to xGoT faced isolates goalkeeper shot-stopping.
Finishing metrics stabilise slowly. A single match tells you little; a full season of 60–100+ shots gives a more trustworthy read, and multi-season samples are better still.
