Turn each team's expected goals into the points they "deserved" from a match. Enter two xG figures to get win/draw/loss probabilities and the expected points each side earns on average.
Arsenal expected points
1.84
Win 53.8% · Draw 23.1% · Loss 23.1%
Chelsea expected points
0.92
Win 23.1% · Draw 23.1% · Loss 53.8%
Arsenal win
53.8%
Draw
23.1%
Chelsea win
23.1%
For informational and entertainment purposes only. Please gamble responsibly. 18+
Expected points is how many league points a team would earn on average from a match, given the quality of the chances both sides created. It converts each team's xG into win/draw/loss probabilities and weights them: 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw).
Actual points are decided by a single result, which can swing on finishing luck or a deflection. xP describes the underlying performance, so over a run of games it is a steadier guide to how well a team is really playing — and where the table might be flattering or harsh.
Use each team's xG from the match (or their rolling xG for and against, adjusted for the opponent). Public sources publish per-match xG for most major leagues.
No — it gives probabilities, not a guaranteed outcome. Its value is in aggregate: summing xP across a season shows which teams are over- or under-performing their underlying numbers.
